6 great threats to the Spanish economy in 2023

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If we have learned anything after the pandemic, it is that anything can happen and everything is likely to get worse . 2021 was going to be the year of post-COVID-19 recovery thanks to the arrival of the vaccine, but successive waves of the virus truncated expectations. The look of hope then moved to 2022, but war broke out in Ukraine. "The War in Ukraine has been the trigger for the perfect storm, especially for Europe: at a time when economies were recovering from the COVID-19 crisis," diagnoses Aurelio García del Barrio, director of the Global MBA with specialization in Finance from the IEB. Since then, making forecasts has become a dance of figures at the mercy of upward and downward risks, and we began to live with an uncertainty that seems eternal. " The worst is yet to come and, for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession," the IMF anticipated in October. The price crisis aggravated by the war clouded the horizon.

Within this uncertain environment, these are the 6 major threats to the future of the economy in 2023 , according to experts consulted by Business Insider Spain . 1. The domino effect of the recession That an economic recession is coming is something that was already taken for granted. The new year arrives with a third of the world's economies at risk of entering Jamaica Mobile Number List recession, according to the World Bank. But everything indicates that, barring any surprises, it will be a mini-recession: the mildest crisis in the last 40 years . A 'light' and provoked recession: why the 2023 crisis will be the smallest in the last 40 years Furthermore, unlike previous crises, this time Spain could be less hit. "For once, Spain is better placed than other European countries," says Federico Steinberg , principal researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute. But that does not mean that Spain will emerge unscathed . "The economy is inserted within the European cycle, in clear deceleration," says Steinberg. For now.

The International Monetary Fund predicts that Germany and Italy will enter a recession in 2023 . To what extent this affects Spain will depend on the magnitude of the contraction. " A recession in Germany can drag down the entire eurozone ," warned the vice president of the European Central Bank, Luis de Guindos, in July. 2. The risk of a gas crisis in winter 2023 Gas pipeline owned by Gazprom in Svobodny (Russia). Gas pipeline owned by Gazprom in Svobodny (Russia).Reuters When it comes to knowing if things can get (even) uglier, all eyes are fixed on the same point: the energy crisis. The energy market will be the first domino in 2023 . What happens with gas and oil, a market heavily dominated by the decisions of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, will determine everything that comes next. "Everything is very conditioned by the energy crisis and what happens with gas. That is going to condition economic activity, inflation and, therefore, monetary policy and the level of interest rate rises.